On Atiku. And His Body Language.

Emeka Orjih.

“What the average northerner needs is somebody who is from the north…….he doesn’t need a yoruba candidate or an Igbo candidate”

You would be forgiven for thinking that the above statement was made in the heat of a beer parlor political discourse by an arm chair political commentator. You would be forgiven…but you would still be wrong.

The statement was made by Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, PDP Presidential Candidate in Nigeria’s upcoming presidential elections. It was his response to a question he was asked at the Arewa Joint Committe’s Interactive Session with Presidential Candidates yesterday the 15th October 2022.

As expected, this has generated plenty opprobrium. How does a man whose primary political brand is “Unifier” make such a divisive statement at a time when the nation is more divided than it has been in recent memory?

Loyalists and party faithful have rushed to his defence with different interesting reasons. Some have pointed to the asker of the question, identified him as the elder brother of the Vice Presidential candidate of the Labour Party, and insinuated that he purposely ambushed Atiku with that question. Another popular defence I found interesting was well captured by a friend who is a PDP operative: “In a congregation of northern elite, rooting for northern interests, he was asked why northerners should vote for him, what did you expect him, a northerner, to answer”?

My take is simple: Mr Atiku Abubakar came for an interview unprepared. And his lack of preparation was evident in that regrettable response.

The question he was asked was not out of place. Infact, for that setting, it was a standard question. As standard as, “walk us through your resume” or “where do you see yourself in 5 years”, in corporate interviews.

It was a standard question that anybody with some iota of intelligence will expect from the Arewa Joint Committee and prep for. Obviously Mr Atiku didn’t prep. He had no talking points. So his true nature somehow bumbled its way out of his mouth, and into our consciousness.

Given that I’ve had personal dealings of an intellectual nature with Mr Atiku and know him to be intelligent, I doubt that his crass exhibition yesterday is proof of his dumbness.

I believe it is proof more of how he sees his electorate and his planned path to victory.

I’ve always maintained that the man’s calm body language suggests he is either resigned to fate or he is depending on something that is not immediately visible to win this presidential election.

Yesterday was more proof of the latter. Atiku doesn’t seem to care much about how he is viewed by the electorate….particularly the southern electorate.

His plan does not require the south to succeed – at least not the south’s electorate. Expected contribution from the south is likely limited to 25+% votes from certain southern states and the financial muscle of states like Delta and Akwa Ibom (who will largely finance the election of the ‘northern candidate’. Wike, in his native intelligence, has withdrawn into a regional champion with his misappropriated wealth sitting firmly inside his zipped pockets)

What Atiku gave us a peek into yesterday was his true nature. His answer was a pointer to who he really is (as against his branding), and a pointer to his lack of basic preparation for the office he seeks.

At the right time, Atiku will play the northern card (which he inadvertently let slip yesterday). That northern card will not only be targeted at the northern electorate (especially of the less educated segment), it will also be targeted at the northern elite in public office. To use their good offices to aid the election of a northerner. Those “good offices” will range from those that can provide coercive armed forces to those that can officially alter electoral outcomes…and of course, everything inbetween.

I suspect he will face an uphill battle though.

President Buhari’s body language suggests he isn’t disposed to majorly interfere in this electoral process. He appears tired, and ready to retire (some say to Daura, but I doubt it. Trust me, you are not the only Nigerian afraid of kidnappers). Mr Buhari will likely be disinclined to do anything that will involve messing with his peaceful retirement plans. Committing armed forces to go partisan or attempting to institutionally alter electoral outcomes would fall into the category of things that will make his retirement hell on earth.

And then of course there’s the other roadblock sitting in the INEC office. The Chairman of Nigeria’s national electoral body (INEC) has committed to deploy the Bi-Modal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). This system effectively closes one major loophole that has been deployed to rig previous elections: multiple voting. It eliminates multiple accreditation and ensures that the person who is accredited is the actual voter and bearer of the card.

Between the BVAS and the
electronic collation and transmission of results empowered by the Electoral Act Amendment Bill (which Mr Buhari signed into law), avenues for blatant rigging have been largely reduced.

I also hear that the current INEC Chair is interested in going international post elections. This makes him more amenable to leverage to do what is right and implement global best practice in election management.

Which leaves one last option to those looking to institutionally alter electoral outcomes: Remove the INEC Chairman from his job before the elections.

Now…this is supposed to be near impossible…but as they say, this is Nigeria, and anything is possible.

However, such a move will require Mr Buhari’s personal involvement and deployment of very expensive political capital. Expensive political capital that Mr Buhari will likely balk at deploying because of his retirement plans and an eye on legacy….especially given that his 7 and half years have produced little meaningful legacy. He may yet see this as his last opportunity to leave something positive for Nigerians and for posterity to remember him by.

But just in case he doesn’t, Nigerians everywhere beware. February 2023 may be your final opportunity to save your country. Flex every muscle that you know how to. Write. Shout. Organize. Storm the streets. Inform and engage every international agency that you can. Pile pressure on Nigeria and on Mr Buhari…

Our votes must count. Nigeria must deliver credible elections in February of 2023